Finance & economics | Free exchange
财经 | 自由交换
Illustration: Álvaro Bernis
Aug 7th 2025 | 5 min read
Time for your annual check-up. After what feels like an eternity in the waiting room, flicking through dog-eared copies of the world’s finest publications (did you know Indonesia is at a crossroads?), your name is called at last. A smiling professional awaits you, only this time the room smells not of disinfectant, but of the solvents used in whiteboard markers. Instead of a fold-out bed, there is a Bloomberg terminal behind the modesty curtain in the corner, flashing green or red with every tick of the market. The economist will see you now.
一年一度的体检到了。你在候诊室里坐着，已经记不清等了多久，随手翻着磨破了边的高端杂志（文章里写着印尼正处在十字路口），终于轮到你。一个专家微笑着等着你，只不过房间里不是消毒水的味道，而是白板笔墨水的味道。隔断用的帘子普通的没有一点特色，里面没有诊疗床，只有一台彭博终端机，随着市场每一次波动跳跃着红的和绿的K线。给你看诊的是个经济学家。
Economists should behave in a manner that would lead the public to think of them as “humble, competent people” akin to dentists, wrote John Maynard Keynes, a not-very-humble economist. If they could get the public to see the profession as being on a similar level to their white-coated peers, he wrote, that would be a “splendid thing”. Keynes was referring more to a technocratic consensus about how to run the economy, rather than to the sort of personalised care and attention provided by a medical professional. But what if the profession took his idea both seriously and literally? Could a trip to the economist make your life better?
不怎么谦逊的经济学家，凯恩斯曾经说过，经济学家要以“谦逊、能干”的姿态示人，就像牙医一样。他还说，如果在老百姓眼里，经济学家跟穿白大褂的医生一样靠谱，绝对是一件“顶好的事”。不过，凯恩斯所说的，更多是指这些经济学家要对经济如何运行有技术共识，而不是像医护那样给人提供因人而异的治疗和看护。不过话又说回来，如果经济学家把凯恩斯的话当真了，会怎样呢？去找经济学家开药方，能让你过得更好吗？
On arrival, the first question is what seems to be the matter: income or happiness? The good news is that more money should make you jollier. Although economists once worried there was a point at which gains to emotional well-being from higher incomes plateaued—a study in 2010 pegged it at $75,000 ($110,000 today)—research by Matthew Killingsworth of the University of Pennsylvania has overturned this idea. He finds that for all but a small minority, well-being typically increases along with income, and that there is no upper limit to the trend. Modern economic research therefore confirms that Kingsley Amis, a British novelist, was correct when he wrote there is “no end to the ways in which nice things are nicer than nasty ones”. But even if there was a point at which more money did not make you happier, the vast majority of an economist’s patients would still benefit from earning more in other, non-happiness-related ways. Better the economist focuses on the tangible and leaves the transcendental to the priest.
来到诊所，经济学家会先问你哪里不舒服：是收入太低，还是心情太差啊？好消息是，钱多了确实能让你更快乐。以前，经济学家还担心，收入到了一个高度之后，钱再增加，幸福感也不会随之增加。比如2010年的研究认为，这个收入的临界点是75,000美元（折合现在的110,000美元）。但宾夕法尼亚大学马修·基林沃斯(Matthew Killingsworth)的研究推翻了这个结论。他发现，一般来说，幸福感就是会随着收入的增加而提高，而且这种关联度没有上限，只有少数人例外。也就是说，现代经济学研究证实英国小说家金斯利·艾米斯(Kingsley Amis)的说法是对的，“好东西就是比坏东西好，这种好没有上限”。不过，就算真的有这种临界点，收入高到一定程度就不会给人带来更多快乐，对于经济学家的大多数“病人”来说，多赚钱依然有好处，哪怕这些好处不是更高的幸福感。经济学家还是该关注看得见摸得着的东西，把超验的事情留给神父去解决吧。
With many patients, the economist might take a look at their chart and tut, “I wouldn’t start from here.” A person’s place of birth has the biggest impact on their life outcomes. The 83% of the world’s population who live in non-rich countries hold a bad hand. At least the prescription is simple: move if you can. Returns to migration are sky-high. A paper in 2016 by Michael Clemens, then at the Centre for Global Development, Claudio Montenegro of the World Bank and Lant Pritchett, then of Harvard University, calculated the benefits of moving from the poor world to America for a typical 30-year-old man with a secondary education. They came to $14,000 or so a year, adjusting for the different price levels. Such benefits are also likely to be passed down to any offspring. Indeed, the puzzle among economists is why so few people move rather than so many. (Border fences explain only so much.)
对经济学家而言，很多“病人”的资料让人一看就忍不住咋舌，“你怎么在这儿出生呢？”出生地对人的一生影响最大。世界上有83%的人出生在非富裕国家，他们手里可没什么好牌能打。但对症的治疗方案倒很简单：可以搬走。移民的回报是相当高的。2016年，全球发展中心工作的迈克尔·克莱门斯(Michael Clemens)、世界银行的克劳迪奥·黑山(Claudio Montenegro)和哈佛大学的兰特·普里切特(Lant Pritchett)共同发表篇论文，计算了接受过中等教育水平的普通30岁男性从贫穷国家移民到美国能获得多少收益。计入不同的物价水平之后，他的收益大概是每年14,000美元。这些个收益很可能会惠及下一代。既然如此，经济学家们就想不通了，怎么移民的人这么少，而不是络绎不绝。（边境围栏也只能拦住一部分而已啊。）
The rest of the advice will depend on how old you are and what has already gone wrong. A handful of big decisions—whether to go to university and what to study, what career you pursue, whether to start a family and with whom—matter more than others. A college education is usually a good bet. In 2020 the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a British think-tank, found that, after accounting for individual characteristics and taxation, university leads to a typical bump of 20% in lifetime earnings. But the returns depend on what you study: entrants to creative-arts courses can expect no financial benefits. Male medics and economists both enjoy a lifetime wage increase of around £500,000 ($625,000).
后续医嘱就要看患者年龄和具体病程了。人生中几个重大决定——上不上大学、学什么专业、从事什么职业、是否结婚生孩子以及找什么样的伴侣——重要性比其他决定高很多。上大学就是个好选择。2020年，英国智库财政研究所（Institute for Fiscal Studies）发现，计入个人特质和税收因素后，大学文凭可以让收入平均提高20%，不过，回报率高低取决于所学专业：学习创意艺术专业，就基本上没有什么经济收益。而学习医学专业和经济学专业的男生，一辈子增加的工资收入可高达50万英镑（62.5万美元）。
An economist should point out that, although wages do vary widely between occupations, a rising share of the variation is explained not only by what you do but by the company for which you work. Best, then, to get a job at a superstar employer. Unionised companies may pay more than their non-unionised counterparts, but if you are a high-flyer you might want to opt for the latter. Unions tend to ensure that low performers get paid more while high performers get paid less. When it comes to relationships, later marriages are typically more stable, but much of this is what an economist might call a “selection effect”. The timing of marriage has little effect in itself—instead, the pattern reflects the type of person who waits for just the right partner. Research also suggests that it may be better to delay having children, and in this case it might not be a selection effect: the later a woman’s career break, the smaller the impact on her lifetime earnings.
经济学家要告诉你，虽然不同职业之间的薪资差距很大，但造成这种差异的原因不只是你做的工作不同，更因为你所在的公司不同。所以，要在有名气的超级大厂工作。在美国，有工会的公司比没工会的公司给工资更高，但如果你有很高的抱负，可能就更适合去没工会的公司。工会往往会优先保障表现平平的员工拿更多薪水，而表现好的员工反而拿得少。至于爱情和婚姻嘛，晚婚一般更稳定，但很大程度上这是经济学家所说的“人择效应”。晚婚之所以更稳定，真正的原因是，有耐心等待般配伴侣的人会有更稳定的婚姻，结婚早晚本身其实影响不大。研究还表明，结婚之后不急着生孩子也有好处，这就不是“人择效应”了，而是因为女性事业因生育中断的时间越晚，对她一生收入的影响就越小。
For older patients, the economist has less advice. Saving for retirement is more valuable the earlier you start. The economist might get out their whiteboard markers for an impromptu refresher on compound interest for youngsters. Older folk do not have much time to improve their earning power, so they should focus on becoming happier instead. Loneliness is the big risk. Perhaps a second degree in the creative arts could help?
如果患者已不再年轻，经济学家能给的建议就没那么多了。越早开始为退休养老储蓄存钱，收益就越大。经济学家可能会拿出白板笔，给年轻人现场补习一下复利原理。年纪大的人再提高收入的时间不多了，所以他们应该更专注在更快乐地生活上。孤独是最大的风险。也许学个创意艺术的二学位有不小好处？
All of this comes with a caveat: economic research tends to deal in averages. Much of the advice will be generic, rather than tailored to the individual. So, too, is a dentist’s: brush your teeth, floss regularly, avoid sugar and do not smoke. But the dentist at least can carry out remedial work and fix things after they have gone wrong. The economist has few tools to fill in career gaps or polish a grubby CV. They can provide some helpful guidance to those who lose their jobs—retraining is helpful but think carefully about the precise course; if the whole region is suffering then those who move earlier are likely to suffer the least—but little in the way of direct help. To live up to Keynes’s metaphor, economists need more than data. They need drills. ■
上面说了这么多，都有一个大背景：经济学研究的通常都是平均值。很多建议都比较笼统，不针对个别人的具体情况。这一点牙医也是如此：人人都要刷牙、定期用牙线、少吃糖、不要抽烟。但牙医至少还能在出了问题之后做一些补救和修复工作。经济学家对失业和难看的简历就束手无策多了。经济学家能给失业的人提供一些有用的指导，比如接受就业再培训有用，但也要好好想想上什么培训课程；如果整个地区经济都不景气，那么越早搬走的人可能受的苦就越少，不过要说有什么直接好处也未必。要真正体现凯恩斯的比喻，经济学家需要的不仅仅是数据，他们还需要“手段”。■
文章精读
But even if there was a point at which more money did not make you happier, the vast majority of an economist’s patients would still benefit from earning more in other, non-happiness-related ways.
这句话是一个典型的英语长难句，由让步状语从句和主句组成，叠加了定语从句和复合修饰。
首先是让步状语从句：
- 副句（让步状语从句）：”even if there was a point at which more money did not make you happier”。
- “even if”引导让步状语从句，意思是“即使”，用于假设；
- “there was a point at which…”这里的”point”指时间或阶段，”at which”是关系副词，引导了修饰”point”的定语从句，相当于”when”。
- “more money did not make you happier” 是定语从句的内容，说明“某一时刻”的具体内容——在这个时刻，钱增加，却不再增加幸福感。
其次是主句“the vast majority of an economist’s patients would still benefit from earning more in other, non-happiness-related ways.”：
- 主语：“the vast majority of an economist’s patients”。
- 谓语：“would still benefit from”，虚拟语气，表示在上述假设条件下的结果，“仍然可以受益”。
- “in other, non-happiness-related ways” 是介词短语作方式状语，进一步说明赚更多钱是通过哪些方式，这些方式与“幸福”无关。
Better the economist focuses on the tangible and leaves the transcendental to the priest.
这是一个省略句，完整结构是：It is better (that) the economist focuses on the tangible and leaves the transcendental to the priest.
"Better"位于句首，其实是“It is better (that) ...”的省略，为英文中相对正式或书面的表达，有时用于建议、评价或祈使句中加强语气。比如：Better safe than sorry.（小心总比后悔好。）
单词短语
eternity
n. time that never ends or that has no limited 永远，永恒；无穷
Religions gain some or their worldly power by claiming they have the key to eternity (= a state of existence outside normal life).
宗教所拥有的世俗权力中有一些是靠宣称自己拥有通往永恒的钥匙而获得的。
The movie went on for what seemed like an eternity.
这部电影长得好像永远演不完。
dog-eared
adj. a book or paper that is dog-eared has the pages turned down at the corners as a result of a lot of use. （书页或报纸因为经常翻看而）卷边的，折角的
This magazine is dog-eared.
这本杂志都卷边了。
solvent
n. a liquid in which solids will dissolve 溶剂
All organic solvents were of analytical grade.
所有有机溶剂均为分析纯。
akin
adj. having some of the same qualities 相似的，类似的
They speak a language akin to French.
他们说的是一种类似法语的语言。
technocratic
adj. relating to or involving experts in science or technology who have a lot of power in government or business （政府或企业）技术官僚掌权的
a technocratic government
技术官僚政府
plateau
n. a large flat area of land that is high above sea level 高原
n. a period during which there are no large changes 平稳期；停滞期
The U.S. death rate reached a plateau in the 1960s, before declining suddenly.
美国的人口死亡率在20世纪60年代进入平稳阶段后突然下降。
v. to reach a particular level and then stay the same 稳定；停滞
The economic slowdown has caused our sales to plateau.
经济发展减缓，导致我们的产品销量停滞不前。
tut
exclamation. used in writing to represent the sound made to show you disapprove of something, or a word said twice in a humorous way to suggest disapproval. （表示不赞成或指责）啧啧（声）
Tut, it’s raining - I am going to get soaked.
啧啧，下雨了——我要淋成落汤鸡了。
v. to make a disapproving sound or speak in a disapproving way （表示不赞成或责难的）嘘！啧！
“Still not out of bed?” She tutted (= said in a disapproving way).
“还没起床？”她啧啧道。
unionised
adj. 组织成工会的；加入工会组织的
unionised employees 加入公会的雇员
high-flyer
n. someone who has a lot of ability and a strong wish to be successful and is therefore expected to achieve a lot 有能力有抱负的人
High-flyers in the industry typically earn 25 percent more than their colleagues.
这个行业中，有能力有抱负的人收入一般都比他们的同事高25%。
impromptu
adj. done or said without earlier planning or preparation 无准备的，即兴的
an impromptu party 临时派对
caveat
n. a warning to consider something before taking any more action, or a statement that limites a more general statement （进一步行动前的）警告，告诫；限制条款
He agreed to the interview, with the caveat that he could approve the final article.
他答应接受访问，条件是访问稿刊登前须经他同意。
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